As European markets react to the Russian ban on European pork?

Russia's ban on imports of pork products from the European Union in connection with the spread of African swine fever in Poland and Lithuania had a major impact on the prices of pigs and pork in Poland.

Although experts predict that prices will rise , they will not reach the levels recorded a year ago .

Nevertheless , the Polish hog prices also depend on the exchange rate of the zloty and the euro, which has always shown some volatility in the range of 4.24 zlotys per euro at the beginning of the year to 4.13 zlotys in March. The current rate is about 4.19 zlotys .

European Commission considers supply of pork in the European market as increased compared with the previous year , due to the Russian ban, and it is expected to lead to further price falls . Poland is forecast to feel this general fall in prices most acutely .

When Russia first imposed a ban on pork from the EU in February , prices have fallen to 4.6 zlotys per kilogram - nine percent less than in January and 11 percent lower than in February 2013 .

prices have already risen , on average, up to 5 zlotys per kilogram, and this level is expected to continue in the foreseeable future .

Experts predict that live pigs in the country will be traded from 5 to 5.3 zlotys per kilogram in June and from 5.3 to 5.7 zlotys per kilogram in September - still less than in 2013 .

Russian ban may also have an impact on the size of the Polish pig population , which in November last year was 11 million head, down one percentage point lower than the previous year . Forecast the number of pigs has decreased since the prices are low , and the market for Russian Polish products still closed .

In 2013, pork production declined by more than four per cent compared with 2012 . In February this year the Polish pork exports fell by 14 percent compared with last year, due to the ban on imports imposed by the Customs Union , which includes Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan .

Exports to Ukraine decreased by 89 percent , in Japan - by 41 percent in South Korea - 31 percent , and in China - 19 percent .

At the same time , the supply of pork in most EU countries have increased , including in Slovakia ( 38 percent ), Germany ( 29 percent ) and Italy ( 27 percent ).

In January-February 2014 Polish exports of livestock, meat , fat, and pork products reached 98,000 tons, which is one percent less than a year ago. Nevertheless , the situation in Poland may become worse because now Russia may ban imports of vegetables , fruits and berries from Poland, and it will cause the agricultural sector of the country even more damage .

While measures taken by Russia , caused particularly severe blow to Poland, the EU meat sector also louder sound fears about this .

Recently, representatives of the Association of French meat industry calls on the European Commission SNIV allow individual countries to conclude its own export agreement with Russia and other countries of the Customs Union , and not to seek European agreement .

Belgian Meat Association VLAM recently described Russia's actions as " draconian method ." VLAM representatives stated that due to the Russian embargo annual exports of pork and offal from the European Union will be reduced by about 700 000 tonnes - two-thirds of Russia's demand for imported pork and pork products . VLAM says that the ban will lead to a drop in pork consumption in Russia by about 14 %.

In the short term, as there is no alternative in terms of supply of pork due to the current restrictions on the importation of Canadian , Brazilian and U.S. pork .

In Russia the ban is expected to lead to higher prices for pork and Russia already is a country where pork is more expensive than beef, and where consumers pay the highest retail price for pork .

VLAM also asks that Germany , which accounts for 40 percent of European sales in Russia will do with 240,000 tons of pork , and where its 180,000 tons of export meat will do with Denmark ?

« If the embargo continues, we can expect that we will see a lot more European pork at a cheaper price in many countries , of course, with the exception of Russia . Russian embargo Mixed cards for the European pig . If prompt decision is not expected, it will have serious consequences for global markets pork " - said representatives VLAM.