Russian meat market meat. Results 2013th and Prospects 2014

Russia reduces dependence on imports and exports of meat increases.

This trend was typical for the past year and will continue , according to market analysts, in the coming year .

2013 was very " colorful " for the meat industry . Thus, in the first half of the year due to lower margins seen record high feed prices due to low prices for the main types of meat . In the second half of the year as a whole margin increased due to cheaper feed . Least capable by the end of the year looks poultry meat into force glut the market and lower prices in this sector margin decreased to a minimum . For the year

meat self-sufficiency of the country has increased from 72 % to 76 % ( although this is quite arbitrary because of different methods of its calculation ) . At the same time , Russia is gradually going down in the ranking of the largest importers of this commodity group . By the end of 2013 , our country is likely to take the fifth place (back in 2007 Russia was "honorable" first among importers ).

Among meat exporters in traditional Russian first place in Brazil in 2013 won ( 400 thousand tons) , but moved into second place Belarus . Thus, in 2013 from a neighboring state will be imported around 300 tonnes of meat .

Another remarkable feature , the gradual emergence of the country 's export meat markets . In general, meat ( including offal ) exports could reach 50,000 tons. The main importers of Russian products are the countries of Central and South- East Asia. Despite problems with ASF , Russia is gradually increasing and export pork products in Southeast Asia , whose volume on the results of 2013 will be about 10.8 million tons . Key importer for Russia was China (Hong Kong) . Also note that the growing and export of finished meat products , which at the end of 2013 may exceed 45 tons. More than 80% of Russian production of finished meat imports Kazakhstan .

cumulative growth rate of domestic production in 2013 is estimated to assess the ICAR 5.7 %. At this rate of growth by industry amounted to 10% in the pig sector , about 6% in the poultry sector and -1% (decrease) in cattle sector .

beef production sector is in a state of profound structural changes. Traditionally , the main source of raw material is milk cattle, livestock which continues to decline, and hence reproductive base for meat in this sector is shrinking. At the same time the country's rapidly growing population and breeding beef cattle , with the beginning of the year increased from 1.56 million head up , an estimated 1.9 million heads ( 22 % ), the growth in the number of beef animals significantly outpacing the whole herd indicating that the process of expanded reproduction in the industry .

About 1 /3 of the market capacity is imported beef, imported mainly from South America and Belarus. In the next 2-3 years is obvious growth of high-quality beef, but the total beef production is unlikely to grow .

pig sector continues to evolve , but economic growth is slow- building character ends pre-existing objects with the minimum of Greenfield . By the end of 2013 the production of all categories of households will grow by almost 10% to 2,810 tons in carcass weight , and growth in the corporate sector will exceed 15%. On the background of the rapid growth of corporate sector continue to decline smallholdings sector , which is largely due to the growing problem of ASF .

Nevertheless , amid successes domestic pig producers Russia remains a major importer of pork (including offal and lard ) . In 2013, the share of imported raw materials in the total capacity of the pork market will be around 29 % (excluding foreign trade in finished goods ) . In the medium term the pork market will grow by 3-4% annually , and in 2014, growth in production may exceed 350 tonnes in live weight .

One of the main drivers of growth of total meat production in Russia is poultry market . After rapid growth in the last three years (CAGR = 10%) , the growth rate is reduced , but still remained at a high level. By the end of 2013 domestic production will increase by 6% to reach 3850 tons deadweight . In 2014 ICAR predicts increase in production at 210-230 thousand tons of live weight ( 4.4 %). Poultry market is the most consolidated corporate sector with a share of about 90%. The share of imported meat has dropped to 13% ( primarily supplied the U.S. , Belarus and Brazil ) . Due to the high saturation of the domestic market , as well as the peculiarities of the domestic pricing on parts of carcasses , poultry has perhaps the greatest export potential .